A national share describes the whole electorate. It does not describe each region.
The official result
Elections Canada’s official tables put the Liberal share of valid votes at 43.8% and the Conservative share at 41.3%, rounded to one decimal place. In Ontario, the corresponding shares were 49.2% and 43.8%. These are certified election results, not polling estimates.
Why a national number is incomplete
National totals combine different local contests. Our interpretation is that a research report should make the relevant geography visible before turning a topline into a broad account of public preferences. A regional estimate, in turn, needs enough interviews and appropriate coverage to support the claim.
A limit on interpretation
Results alone do not establish why people voted as they did. They also cannot identify how many individuals switched parties between elections. Claims about motivations or movement require additional evidence. The role of this retrospective is to establish the official benchmark and the questions it raises, not to reconstruct an unmeasured story about individual voters.
Evidence note. This retrospective was first published on 25 October 2026. Its period label refers to the underlying event or data, not an earlier publication. Source material may include final figures published after the period covered. Northbound’s interpretation is identified separately from reported findings. Read our publication policy.