The Northbound election archive

Before the vote.
Beyond the headline.

The figures, the methods and the stories inside published Canadian election polling.

The evidence, at a glance
9Northbound polling reports
4external source surveys
11contests covered · 2025–26

Release dates and archive publication dates are shown separately. Web reports added 25 Oct 2026.

About this collection. Nine reports present figures and methods supplied by Northbound Insights, including Alberta’s ten referendum questions. Two external-evidence reviews analyse Pallas Data polling for the 2025 federal and Ontario elections. Each card identifies its research provider. Release labels remain distinct from the date a web report was added. This selected archive is not a polling average or forecast.
11 reportsWeb reports added 25 Oct 2026
Mississauga / Municipal
Northbound polling

Mississauga: Crombie 33%, Tedjo 31%, Parrish 27%.

Tedjo gains 12 points across three supplied campaign waves, narrowing Crombie’s advantage to two points in the final pre-election tracker.

2 ppCrombie–Tedjo gap among decided and leaning voters
Northbound release 24 Oct 2026Fieldwork 21 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026 · n=850Added to this archive 25 Oct 2026
Read the report ↗
Toronto / Municipal
Northbound polling

Toronto: Chow 51%, Bradford 46%.

Bradford gains seven points across three supplied campaign waves. Chow retains a five-point advantage in a contest with sharply different regional and age-group estimates.

5 ppChow–Bradford gap among decided and leaning voters
Northbound release 24 Oct 2026Fieldwork 21 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026 · n=1,200Added to this archive 25 Oct 2026
Read the report ↗
Oakville / Municipal
Northbound polling

Oakville: Burton 31%, Hanna 27%, O’Meara 22%.

Five candidates divide the decided-and-leaning ballot. The supplied ward-group estimates show a different ordering in northern Oakville as development and traffic dominate the report’s issue findings.

4 ppBurton–Hanna gap among decided and leaning voters
Northbound release 24 Oct 2026Fieldwork 20 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026 · n=650Added to this archive 25 Oct 2026
Read the report ↗
Milton / Municipal
Northbound polling

Milton: Krantz 33%, Akbar 27%, Minakakis 18%.

The final pre-election figures put the incumbent six points ahead of Akbar, with distinct patterns by length of residency and a divided challenger field.

6 ppKrantz–Akbar gap among decided and leaning voters
Northbound release 23 Oct 2026Fieldwork 19 Oct 2026 – 22 Oct 2026 · n=600Added to this archive 25 Oct 2026
Read the report ↗
British Columbia / Provincial
Northbound polling

B.C.: Conservatives 48%, NDP 38%, Greens 11%.

Three supplied campaign waves show a nine-point Conservative gain and a reversal in the province-wide ordering. Regional estimates show a more varied picture.

10 ppConservative–NDP gap among decided and leaning voters
Northbound release 23 Oct 2026Fieldwork 20 Oct 2026 – 22 Oct 2026 · n=1,400Added to this archive 25 Oct 2026
Read the report ↗
Alberta / Referendum
Northbound polling

Alberta: 75% remain, with a closer autonomy ballot.

The supplied final survey puts remain at 75% on Question 10. The other nine questions range from a 62–38 yes advantage to a 49–51 split.

75%Remain in Canada among decided Question 10 respondents
Northbound release 18 Oct 2026Fieldwork 14 Oct 2026 – 17 Oct 2026 · n=1,100Added to this archive 25 Oct 2026
Read the report ↗
Vancouver / Municipal
Northbound polling

Vancouver: Fry 41%, Sim 37%, others 22%.

The supplied final Metro Vancouver tracker places Pete Fry four points ahead of Ken Sim in Vancouver, with a sizeable combined share for other candidates.

4 ppFry–Sim gap in the supplied Vancouver ballot
Northbound release 16 Oct 2026Fieldwork 12 Oct 2026 – 15 Oct 2026 · n=800Added to this archive 25 Oct 2026
Read the report ↗
Surrey / Municipal
Northbound polling

Surrey: McCallum 43%, Locke 38%, others 19%.

The supplied final Metro Vancouver tracker places Doug McCallum five points ahead of Brenda Locke in Surrey, with other candidates accounting for 19%.

5 ppMcCallum–Locke gap in the supplied Surrey ballot
Northbound release 16 Oct 2026Fieldwork 12 Oct 2026 – 15 Oct 2026 · n=700Added to this archive 25 Oct 2026
Read the report ↗
Quebec / Provincial
Northbound polling

Quebec: PQ 28%, Liberals 24%, Conservatives 21%.

The final supplied wave places five parties between 12% and 28%, with sharply different language-group estimates and a fragmented province-wide ballot.

4 ppPQ–Liberal gap among decided and leaning respondents
Northbound release 4 Oct 2026Fieldwork 1 Oct 2026 – 3 Oct 2026 · n=1,250Added to this archive 25 Oct 2026
Read the report ↗
Canada / Federal
Third-party polling

The national lead was only part of the story.

Two April Pallas releases showed a Liberal advantage, while leader assessments varied substantially by issue.

+8 ppLiberal advantage over the Conservatives in the April 14 Pallas release
Source report 14 Apr 2025Vote 28 Apr 2025Northbound analysis 25 Oct 2026
Read the report

Inspectable figures, original sources and clear limits.

External evidence index ↓Northbound study index ↓