Allow uncertainty to be an answer rather than forcing a direction.
The early-2025 context
The Bank of Canada’s first-quarter 2025 consumer survey described deteriorating sentiment as the trade conflict with the United States escalated. It reported weaker labour-market confidence and concerns about job loss, especially in trade-exposed sectors. These are the Bank’s findings, not Northbound fieldwork.
Design for an unsettled outlook
A forced choice between better and worse may hide respondents who cannot yet form an expectation. Our interpretation is that uncertainty should sometimes be measured explicitly, with a follow-up about the information people are waiting for. That creates a more useful distinction between a negative expectation and an unresolved one.
From concern to intended behaviour
A study can then ask whether uncertainty is leading respondents to delay, substitute or proceed with a decision. Those are proposed questions, not findings established by this article. Repeated waves would help distinguish a short reaction to news from a more persistent change in expectations. A consistent questionnaire is essential to making that comparison meaningful.
Evidence note. This retrospective was first published on 25 October 2026. Its period label refers to the underlying event or data, not an earlier publication. Source material may include final figures published after the period covered. Northbound’s interpretation is identified separately from reported findings. Read our publication policy.