Measure risk expectations and growth plans independently.
The published context
The Bank of Canada’s second-quarter 2025 business survey reported that firms saw the worst-case trade scenarios as less likely than in the previous quarter. Nevertheless, uncertainty continued to constrain hiring and investment plans. The main interviews took place from 8 to 28 May 2025.
Two different questions
“Has the risk fallen?” and “Will you expand?” do not ask for the same judgment. A business can become less worried about a severe disruption while still deciding to postpone investment. Our interpretation is that a useful outlook study needs both questions.
What to measure next
We would ask which decisions are proceeding, which are paused and what would release the pause. Those conditions may include a clearer cost estimate, stronger orders or a change in financing. These are proposed research topics, not conclusions from the Bank’s study. A sector-specific sample would be required to establish how common each condition is in a particular market.
Evidence note. This retrospective was first published on 25 October 2026. Its period label refers to the underlying event or data, not an earlier publication. Source material may include final figures published after the period covered. Northbound’s interpretation is identified separately from reported findings. Read our publication policy.